Gold: Dubious Speculation and Market Analysis

Key Points

Long-Term Bullish Trend: Gold is currently following a trajectory predicted back in 2020/2021, moving upwards, consolidating, and expected to break higher into 2026 and the end of the decade.
The "Monthly RSI" Trap: While the monthly RSI for gold is extremely high (93-94), using it as a sole indicator to sell is dangerous. Historical data from 1973 shows that after hitting similar RSI levels, gold rallied another 600% over the following seven years despite an interim correction.
Metals vs. Risk Assets: There is a significant capital shift occurring from speculative assets (crypto/altcoins) toward hard assets (gold/silver). Altcoins are performing poorly against metals, hitting new lows.
Correction Correlations: A common misconception is that if gold corrects, crypto will rally. Historical analysis suggests that when metals undergo mean reversion/correction, risk assets (stocks and crypto) tend to drop even harder.
S&P 500 vs. Gold: The stock market (S&P 500) is breaking down when valued in gold, bearing a strong resemblance to the market structure of the 1970s rather than the dot-com bubble.

Current Status: Gold is trading around $2,600 and approaching $3,000. It has consistently held the bull market support band throughout 2024 and 2025.
Price Predictions:
- A short-term "blow-off top" is expected in the first half of 2026.
- A subsequent correction (approx. 30%) is likely in the second half of 2026.
- Long-term target: Gold is expected to exceed $5,000 and potentially hit $6,000 before the end of the decade.
Historical Comparison (1973):
- In 1973, Gold monthly RSI hit 94.
- Gold subsequently dropped 30%, but selling then meant missing a 600% rally over the next 7 years.
- During the 1973 gold local top, the stock market dropped approximately 50%.
Crypto Performance:
- Altcoins: Described as "falling knives" against metals. Total 3 (crypto excluding BTC/ETH) is dropping back to 2022 lows when valued in gold and making new lows against silver.
- Retail Interest: Social interest in crypto has been trending lower throughout 2025, contradicting hopes for an "Alt Season."
- Bitcoin: Likely to continue bleeding against stocks until the stock market experiences a serious correction.
Valuation vs. M2: Gold has broken through its 2011 high when valued against the M2 money supply, with the next major resistance level being roughly 26% higher.

Respect the Bull Market: Attempting to time the exact top based on "overbought" indicators like RSI is unwise; investors risk missing significant long-term gains (potentially 7x from local tops based on history).
Portfolio Allocation: It remains a sound strategy to pivot away from altcoins and towards hard assets like gold and silver. The fear of missing out on an altcoin rally is currently unjustified by data.
Market Warning: Do not rely on a gold correction to save a crypto portfolio. If metals correct, expect risk assets (stocks and altcoins) to suffer deeper losses.
Macro Outlook: The devaluation of the US dollar (money printing) ensures long-term charts go "up and to the right," validating the holding of hard assets despite short-term volatility.